Well, many pixels have been scattered commenting on the McCain campaign’s auger into the flight deck. The question for those of us aligned with Giuliani is this: How does it effect Rudy’s chances of securing the nomination?
My first instinct, actually, is this is BAD for Giuliani. Without delving into the details, I think we can stipulate there is a small but noisy minority in the GOP that just can’t stand him. That minority becomes proportionally larger every time a candidate drops out of the race. The more candidates there are opposing Giuliani then the more the influence of those single-issue voters blinded to political reality is diffused. The last thing Giuliani needs is for all those folks to gravitate to one guy.
Upon relflection, though, it seems to me this doesn’t change things at all. Why? Because ultimately that noisy minority will NEVER coalesce behind a single candidate. Fred Thompson has his own social issue problems, and he’s part of the Hollywood mafia, walking around with a wife who is, frankly, even more obviously a trophy than Giuliani’s Judi. And that’s hard to do.
Mitt Romney has also been a flip-flopper extraordinaire who can only inspire reluctant support from this minority. Also– and let me be clear that when I say the following I am in no way saying this is how I or the Giuliani campaign feel– there’s the Mormon thing. There are a lot of Evangelical Christians who simply don’t think the Church of Latter Day Saints is altogether kosher. Many think Mormons are even bigger apostates than Catholics.
So what this means is the single-issue socially conservative voters now w/McCain will splinter amongst all the other candidates, including the Huckabee and Brownback bitter-enders. As a former libertarian bitter-ender, I mean no disrespect there. Besides, there were never many of those folks in McCain’s camp in the first place.
So what’s left of McCain’s support? The institutional men. The former Dubya campaign folks, Senate groupies, that sort of thing. Now, those people like nothing more than a front-runner. So I submit they will split marginally in Giuliani’s favor, offsetting the marginal gains the other “top tier” candidates get from McCain’s social right refugees.
In the end it’s a wash, yet again countering the conventional wisdom, in this care that more candidates is better for Giuliani.